Iran drone attack, open and shut case?

I was thinking today about the recent attack on Saudi oil, and I am starting to ask questions as I play devil’s advocate. The US State Department lead by Mike Pompeo, has come out publicly and said that Iran is responsible. Iran has denied involvement. I want to be clear here, I am not trying to discount the assessment that our intelligence community has conducted here, nor do I pretend to know what intelligence they have to back up these findings. I am merely offering an alternative perspective, taking into account what we know about Iran and its place in the Middle East, and the world.

Iran is one of many Islamic theocracies in the region in which it exists.   However, Iran is controlled by an Islamic government that identifies with Shia Islam, rather than Sunni like their regional neighbors. I don’t want to get into the feud between Shia and Sunni as that is a conversation for another day, and I don’t want to get too far off base here, but it is an interesting topic if you ever have some free time to research it as it goes all the way back to the death of the so called, prophet Muhammed. About 90 % of the world’s Muslim population identifies as Sunni, and the remaining 10 %, Shia. You can imagine that this gives the Mullahs in Iran a case of short man’s syndrome, when it comes to their place and influence in the Middle East, and the world.

Iran has tried very hard over the years to expand their influence. Iranian support of the Houthi rebels in Yemen is a great example of this desire to make an impact and expand Iran’s influence. There is also a school of thought that points to Iran’s provocative behavior as of late, as a tactic to pressure President Trump to ease up on sanctions. So this brings me to my question, if Iran is acting out in order to influence US policy, or just trying to show that they are not pushovers, why would they deny involvement here? Denying the accusations seems to point more toward innocence on their part. If they were to accept responsibility for an attack that they were not involved with, I could understand the intent there, but for a regime that typically looks for opportunities to flex some muscle, this attack on Saudi Arabia seems a little out of character for them and their recent modus operandi.

I think that these questions have to be asked, and deep analysis of the Middle East is necessary, and the complexity of the dynamics there must be acknowledged. Iran is also under more pressure at the moment as they are feeling the heat from recent economic sanctions. I think that is why Trump is holding off on military action and concentrating on crippling sanctions. He probably sees that the sanctions are causing quite a bit of damage without firing a single shot. Trump also knows that utilizing military action could drag us into another conflict that Americans do not have the stomach for after 18 years of perpetual war in the Middle East.

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